IRIS - 意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告

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意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡrOUnS250ez
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文件編號：AISE/AISI〔2020〕-0805-聯合極秘100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡeaqXreoCOO
密級：極秘（僅限意大利總理及國防部長本人查閱）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ63qtWIlRuq
保存期限：永久保存100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡqUAHdtxmRs
簽發人：AISE局長馬可·羅西（Marco Rossi）／AISI局長保羅·貝爾蒂（Paolo Berti）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡsRfNQ2GrvF
主送：意大利總理（僅限本人查閱）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡIv4uZx1E2d
抄送：國防部長（僅限本人查閱）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡmGSkUt04b5
事由：關於「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」之「聯合評估報告」——以及對「IRIS團隊」之「態度建議」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡJ9xNrJfqPe
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一、事件概述100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ1GPMEOJiS0
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2020年8月5日凌晨，福爾泰扎堡壘（Forte di Fortezza）發生「爆炸事件」。經本局「聯合調查」，現已確認以下事實：100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlhyrKi1d9Y
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項目內容100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡa09xKIDlvb
地點福爾泰扎堡壘（意大利南蒂羅爾地區）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡXQVgwHIAIY
時間 2020年8月5日凌晨1時至3時100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡmdlTAyusty
目標赤道組織秘密金庫（藏有大量金條、美金及債券）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9g3fFy2Kep
執行者 IRIS團隊（四人：G、車婉婉、馮盈盈、南空直美）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡp386y6s7Es
結果金庫被「完全摧毁」——「全部」金條、美金、債券「化為灰燼」——「六名赤道守衛」全部「生還」——「無死亡」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡD7a9ViVWSN
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現場遺留牆上「紅色噴漆」寫有「FUCK YOU」——署名「IRIS」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhEoC0hkriC
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二、對IRIS團隊之「綜合評估」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡrjygDkn972
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經AISE及AISI「聯合分析」，現對IRIS團隊作出以下「綜合評估」：100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡL4PFSuXZ8A
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（一）作戰能力100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡixqHwdBZAb
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評估項目評級說明100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9kiz1DwirD
潛入能力 A級（極高）能夠「避開」堡壘周邊嘅「閉路電視系統」及「守衛巡邏」——「無聲」進入金庫100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡzVoldnB5Po
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戰鬥能力 A級（極高）四名成員「協同作戰」——「迅速」制服六名守衛——「全過程十五秒」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyh6O3UXwaX
技術能力 A級（極高）能夠「入侵」堡壘嘅「電子監控系統」——「遙距引爆」炸藥100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡfr2oguCdF0
撤退能力 A級（極高）成功「向北」撤離——「進入」奧地利邊境——「甩掉」追兵100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡVdnStdE1pH
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（二）戰略意圖100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡxusBW4syr9
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評估項目內容100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡxkWkFJfXLL
目標 IRIS「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利政府或意大利人民100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡpSaPGcBXk5
手段 IRIS「選擇」唔殺守衛——「留活口」——顯示佢哋「有克制」——而「唔係」冷血殺手100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡqq5cz0O84g
訊息「FUCK YOU」——係向赤道組織「宣示」——IRIS「唔會放過」佢哋100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡjQNcuIBKt8
立場 IRIS「有」中國中央「支持」——佢哋「唔係」非法武裝組織——而係「獲認證」嘅「反恐力量」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ7ECqQNyP5G
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（三）對意大利之「威脅評估」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlj9R8WFBlT
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評估項目評級說明100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡr0tGqneh0a
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直接威脅 🟢 零 IRIS「並無」對意大利政府或人民「構成威脅」——佢哋「只針對」赤道組織100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡvioea8IATh
間接影響 🟡 輕微 IRIS行動「未造成」平民傷亡——「未引發」社會恐慌——「未損害」意大利國際形象100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ70aJjLpIy8
潛在風險 🟢 低如果意大利「主動追捕」IRIS——可能會「得罪」中國——「得不償失」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡJpGlrqwQEF
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三、戰略建議100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡSxm88tI7cr
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基於以上評估，AISE及AISI聯合建議如下：100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9JKX5GIHbt
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建議說明100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhokqsQ9XhP
1. 唔主動追捕IRIS IRIS「針對」赤道——「唔係針對」意大利——追捕佢哋會「得罪」中國——「冇必要」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡB70uJVWI4O
2. 發佈「低調」通緝令對外「做吓樣」——展示意大利政府「有行動」——但「唔會」真係「全力追捕」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡRFuE2MMGQj
3. 暗中觀察IRIS 如果IRIS「再次」進入意大利——AISE會「監視」但「唔會干預」——除非佢哋「危害」意大利國家安全100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyoDZYtk854
4. 考慮未來合作 IRIS係「對抗赤道」嘅「有效力量」——意大利「將來」可能「需要」佢哋「協助」100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡgBiaNhl3hc
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四、總結100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9DOBlq86kz
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IRIS團隊喺「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」中展示咗「極高」嘅「作戰能力」同「戰略克制」。100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡLPnC0Ry1tV
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佢哋「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利。100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡH0iSR9X8Os
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佢哋「有」中國中央「支持」——而「唔係」非法武裝組織。100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ4yKm2PT9tf
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本局強烈建議——意大利政府「唔主動追捕」IRIS——「發佈低調通緝令」做吓樣——「暗中觀察」——「考慮未來合作」。100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡAEO4FwufQQ
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（AISE／AISI 聯合印）100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡxFy1gVUvY3
2020年8月5日100Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡoC5WOnqxQj